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---

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220258
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure
area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and
thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization.  In addition,
recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from
Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near
tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  The
system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser
Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or
Tuesday.  Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and
warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
overnight and on Sunday.  Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during
the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Further information on the system near the Windward Islands can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
  

---

Tropical Storm Jerry

• Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:40:09 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:24:52 GMT

 

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---

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212342
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Lorena, located over the Gulf of
California, on Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
  

---

Tropical Storm Kiko

• Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 39
  

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• Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 39
  

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• Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 39
  

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• Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
  

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• Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:39:52 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:39:53 GMT

---

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
  

---

Tropical Storm Mario

• Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:55:09 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:55:09 GMT

---

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
  

---

Tropical Storm Lorena

• Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
  

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• Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:37:43 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:37:44 GMT