Weather Alerts for Santa CruzIssued by the National Weather Service |
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SANTA CRUZ | ||
Areas Affected: Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore - East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range - East Bay Interior Valleys - Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County Including Pinnacles National Park - North Bay Interior Valleys - North Bay Mountains - Northern Monterey Bay - Northern Salinas Valley, Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley - San Francisco - San Francisco Bay Shoreline - San Francisco Peninsula Coast - Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose - Santa Cruz Mountains - Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest - Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast - Southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio |
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Effective: Sun, 1/24 7:51am | Updated: Sun, 1/24 4:30pm | Urgency: Future |
Expires: Mon, 1/25 9:00am | Severity: Unknown | Certainty: Possible |
Details:
...SLOW MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY... * WHAT...A cold weather system will bring light to moderate precipitation to the region Sunday afternoon and evening, with showers and possible thunderstorms lingering across areas from Monterey Bay southward into Monday. But the main event will be a much stronger and wetter atmospheric river storm system that is due to arrive by late Tuesday. This system will likely produce periods of heavy rain from late Tuesday evening through at least Thursday, and possible into Thursday night. A prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain is most likely to occur from the Santa Cruz Mountains south through the Santa Lucia Mountains. Heavy rain rates with this system may result in mudslides and debris flow over any of the many wildfire burn areas. Also, minor flooding is possible in low- lying or poorly drained areas. 2.5 to 4.5 inches of rain is forecast for most urban and lower elevation areas from late Tuesday through Thursday night, while 4 to 7 inches of rain is projected over higher terrain, except locally up to 9 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains and up to 11 inches in the Santa Lucia Mountains. * WHERE... Entire forecast area from Napa and Sonoma Counties south through Monterey and San Benito Counties. Heavy rain is possible in all areas during this event, but the most prolonged period of heavy rain will most likely occur from Santa Cruz County southward. * WHEN... Late Tuesday through late Thursday. Periods of heavy rain are expected starting late Tuesday evening in the North Bay, then spreading south across the remainder of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additional heavy rain is likely to continue at times from Wednesday night through Thursday evening, especially across areas from the Santa Cruz Mountains southward. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... The primary concern is for mud, rock, and debris flows across recent burn areas. In addition, strong gusty winds are likely at times, especially on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Debris from gusty winds may cause drainage blockages which could create a localized flooding threat, especially in mountainous terrain. Ponding of water is likely in low-lying or poorly drained areas, such as freeway offramps. Mainstem river flooding is not expected due to dry conditions so far this winter. Periods of heavy rain and strong winds will make travel difficult. Details regarding the midweek storm will likely change as we draw closer to the event. Therefore, please monitor the latest forecast for the most up to date weather information and possible watches and warnings. Confidence is high that widespread significant rainfall will occur with the midweek system. Confidence is moderate with respect to the timing, location, and duration of heaviest precipitation, as well as total rainfall accumulation. |