Weather Alerts for Santa Cruz

Issued by the National Weather Service

Hydrologic Outlook  HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK   Hydrologic Outlook

Areas Affected:
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore - East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range - East Bay Interior Valleys - Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County Including Pinnacles National Park - North Bay Interior Valleys - North Bay Mountains - Northern Monterey Bay - Northern Salinas Valley, Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley - San Francisco - San Francisco Bay Shoreline - San Francisco Peninsula Coast - Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose - Santa Cruz Mountains - Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest - Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast - Southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio
Effective: Sun, 1/24 7:51am Updated: Sun, 1/24 4:30pm Urgency: Future
Expires: Mon, 1/25 9:00am Severity: Unknown Certainty: Possible

* WHAT...A cold weather system will bring light to moderate
precipitation to the region Sunday afternoon and evening, with
showers and possible thunderstorms lingering across areas from
Monterey Bay southward into Monday. But the main event will be a
much stronger and wetter atmospheric river storm system that is
due to arrive by late Tuesday. This system will likely produce
periods of heavy rain from late Tuesday evening through at least
Thursday, and possible into Thursday night. A prolonged period
of moderate to heavy rain is most likely to occur from the Santa
Cruz Mountains south through the Santa Lucia Mountains. Heavy
rain rates with this system may result in mudslides and debris
flow over any of the many wildfire burn areas. Also, minor
flooding is possible in low- lying or poorly drained areas. 2.5
to 4.5 inches of rain is forecast for most urban and lower
elevation areas from late Tuesday through Thursday night, while
4 to 7 inches of rain is projected over higher terrain, except
locally up to 9 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains and up to 11
inches in the Santa Lucia Mountains.
* WHERE... Entire forecast area from Napa and Sonoma Counties
south through Monterey and San Benito Counties. Heavy rain is
possible in all areas during this event, but the most prolonged
period of heavy rain will most likely occur from Santa Cruz
County southward.
* WHEN... Late Tuesday through late Thursday. Periods of heavy
rain are expected starting late Tuesday evening in the North
Bay, then spreading south across the remainder of the region
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additional heavy rain is likely to
continue at times from Wednesday night through Thursday evening,
especially across areas from the Santa Cruz Mountains
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... The primary concern is for mud, rock, and
debris flows across recent burn areas. In addition, strong gusty
winds are likely at times, especially on Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Debris from gusty winds may cause drainage blockages
which could create a localized flooding threat, especially in
mountainous terrain. Ponding of water is likely in low-lying or
poorly drained areas, such as freeway offramps. Mainstem river
flooding is not expected due to dry conditions so far this
winter. Periods of heavy rain and strong winds will make travel
difficult. Details regarding the midweek storm will likely
change as we draw closer to the event. Therefore, please monitor
the latest forecast for the most up to date weather information
and possible watches and warnings. Confidence is high that
widespread significant rainfall will occur with the midweek
system. Confidence is moderate with respect to the timing,
location, and duration of heaviest precipitation, as well as
total rainfall accumulation.